The Six Counties - Europe's electoral laboratory
NEIL FORDE examines the outcome in the latest electoral system to
be foisted on the Six Counties
The right to one-person one-vote probably seemed like a simple
straightforward demand to the civil rights campaigners of 30
years ago.
Little did they know of the marathon electoral cycle that lay
ahead of Six-County voters in 1968.
Now 23 elections later, they have sampled the delights of the
first past the post system, PRSTV and a PR List system using the
d'Hondt rule. Next Thursday voters face another twist in their
electoral saga. This election will use PRSTV electing 108 members
through 18 six-seater constituencies based on boundaries used in
Westminster
elections. The introduction of six-seater constituencies promises
an intensity of electoral competition not seen since the 1920s
when PRSTV was first introduced to Ireland as part of the 1920
Government of Ireland Act.
No other European state has participated in such a mix of
electoral systems. What is more telling is that with this
assembly election the London and Dublin governments are
encouraging a level of electoral competition not permissible in
their own jurisdictions.
Successive British governments have clung to an undemocratic
single seat first past the post. New Labour leader Tony Blair
presides over a governing party who won 419 of 659 seats with
only 44% of the vote. A proportionate system would have given
Blair only 290 seats.
Election fixing
Leinster House elections are more proportionate and
representative of votes cast than the British system. There are
however some serious anomalies. The original PRSTV electoral
system in the 26 Counties included seven and nine seater
constituencies. Such a high seat allocation per constituency
created the conditions where large parties found elections very
difficult to compete in as small groups could secure
representation with as little as 11% of the constituency vote.
Over the decades parties in government have reduced the number of
seats per constituency. The Six Counties also had seven and nine
seater constituencies in the 1920s. The Ulster Unionists
dismantled not only multi-seat constituencies but also the whole
PR system. The reasoning behind this was not solely to minimise
nationalist representation but to stop the unionist vote
splintering.
Throughout the 18 constituencies there will be two crucial issues
in next week's election. The first is as always maximising your
party's vote. The second issue is an added dimension which in the
past was really only prevalent in some district council
elections. It is the case of vote transfers.
Pacts and transfers
PR elections can produce widely different votes from first past
the post systems as voters rank and transfer votes between
individuals and parties. 17% of first preference votes will
guarantee you a seat in any of the 18 constituencies. Candidates
who fall short of the 17% mark will be hanging on subsequent
counts to see if their party vote and other transfers will pull
them in.
North Belfast is one of the constituencies worth watching. In the
1996 Forum elections the vote was split giving Sinn Féin, the
SDLP, DUP and UUP all one seat. Under the d'Hondt formula the DUP
took the fifth seat.
With six seats at stake and STV at work, it will be a scrap for
the final two seats. Both Sinn Féin and the SDLP increased their
vote last time around. They both won over 20% of the poll. There
is however an outside chance that with an increased nationalist
vote and unionist division that an extra seat could be won here.
other constituency to watch is Newry Armagh. In 1997 the Sinn
Féin vote fell slightly to 21.06% from 25.59% in 1996 as some
republican voters opted to secure a nationalist victory for
Seamus Mallon. With STV and a growing Sinn Féin vote two of the
six seats is well within reach while a third candidate is also
being run by the local party in an attempt to maximise the party
vote across the constituency.
Wrong formula
The SDLP are still smarting in West Belfast from the four out of
five seats won by Sinn Féin in 1996. The SDLP played a role in
picking the electoral system for the Forum, a ballot that Sinn
Féin didn't want. The d'Hondt formula gave the party the four
seats with only 53.4% of the poll. In 1997 the Sinn Féin vote
grew again to almost 56% and with five candidates the party is
aiming to take a definite three seats with an eye on two others.
The SDLP will pull out all the stops to halt Sinn Féin's
progress. This is one to watch as the battle for the last two
seats could easily swing towards Sinn Féin. The SDLP perfomance
in PR in this constituency is considerably weaker than under the
first past the post system. In 1996 they only won 26.49% of the
vote.
other constituency worth watching is Upper Bann. A seat here
for Sinn Féin is a distinct possibility. The party won over 12%
of the vote here in 1997 in the UUP leader David Trimble's home
constituency.
Fermanagh/South Tyrone is another key constituency. Looking at
the 1997 results it seems as though there are three nationalist
seats in this constituency. However it was clearly shown twice in
1981 that there is a nationalist majority here. At least three
nationalists seats is a must if voters turn out. Sinn Féin were
ahead of the SDLP in 1997 and 1996 in this constituency. This
could be crucial in bringing a second seat to Sinn Féin this time
around.
The Sinn Féin vote in Mid Ulster surged from almost 30% in 1996
to just over 40% in 1997 when Martin McGuinness took the seat
from the DUP's Willie McCrea. A further collapse in the SDLP vote
and inter-unionist competition could see increased representation
for Sinn Féin.
No matter what the state of play in unionism considerable media
focus will be devoted to assessing the Sinn Féin vote. The
party's participation has been the focal point of elections in
the Six Counties since 1981. So use your vote on 25 June. It was
a hard won right.
![[An Phoblacht]](http://republican-news.org/graphics/title_gifs/aprn.gif)