Sketching a new landscape
Major dances around May poll
BY MICHEAL MacDONNCHA
Eight nationalist MPs, unionist MPs reduced to ten, a Labour
government, the bi-partisan Labour/Tory approach to the Six
Counties ended, the Tories in opposition reunited with the Ulster
Unionists, and an end to "a thousand years of British history".
Some of these scenarios may seem far-fetched but all are within
the realms of possibility. They were sketched out by various
parties this week as the prospect of a Westminster general
election on 1 May looked ever more likely. Fears of an earlier
election receded when John Major's government defeated an attempt
by Labour on Monday night 17 February to precipitate a vote of
confidence. Once again the Ulster Unionist MPs played a key part
in Major's survival.
The issue on which Labour chose to strike was BSE and confidence
in Agriculture Minister Douglas Hogg. The deal had been done well
before the vote and Labour overtures to UUP leader David Trimble
were in vain. In return for abstaining Trimble's party got a
commitment from Hogg to seek an early lifting of the EU ban on
the sale of cattle from the Six Counties. (For good measure in
his speech Hogg threw in a derogatory and inaccurate remark about
BSE being worse in the 26 Counties.)
It is also believed that Trimble got a commitment for the
establishment of greater powers for the Northern Ireland Grand
Committee at Westminster, long a pet project of the unionists.
One of the reasons unionists do not want an early general
election is to ensure that this is a fait accompli for the new
government. Whatever chance there is of a close result will be
enhanced by a later poll date, and the unionists dearly wish to
be in the same pivotal position on the other side of a general
election.
In the election campaign there will be plenty of opportunities
for them to promote their case within Britain because "defence of
the Union" is a key part of Tory election strategy. They wish to
pose as the only party that can keep the United Kingdom together.
Speaking at the Welsh Tory Party conference on 15 February Major
said Labour was threatening to "take a hammer and chisel to the
constitution" with their support for Welsh and Scottish
devolution. "They would gerrymander Britain and play party
politics with our nation for pure political advantage," said
Major, and in a ringing phrase summed up the Tory view of the
past:
"A thousand days of Labour could ditch a thousand years of
British history. It's a poor bargain. Better to keep the history
and ditch Labour."
(The bit about "playing party politics" is deeply ironic given
that this is how Major and the unionists destroyed the peace
process.)
One historian interviewed in a British newspaper described the
Tories' "wholly English distortion of history" which shows "they
haven't a clue about what has happened in Ireland or Scotland".
But Major's electioneering unionism does strike a chord with a
section of British voters. This is reflected in the comments of
Andrew Hunter, chair of the Tory Backbench Committee on Northern
Ireland. He has called for the restoration of the formal links
between the Tories and the Unionists, reuniting the two parties.
Hunter claimed on 17 February that private talks are already
being held to rebuild the links. Labour's spokesperson on Ireland
Mo Mowlam said this would threaten the Tory/Labour bi-partisan
approach.
While talk of such formal Tory/Unionist reunification seems
premature at present it does point to a possible scenario after
the general election. A Labour government would be faced with a
more stridently unionist Tory party, and if it was a government
with a small majority or even a minority government the power of
Trimble's party would be greatly increased.
This brings us to the next scenario - the possibility of actually
reducing the number of unionists at Westminster from 13 to ten or
11. This possibility exists if the SDLP would agree an electoral
accommodation with Sinn Féin. Party chairperson Mitchel
McLaughlin called for such an accommodation in an article in the
Irish News on Wednesday and said it would "transform
the political landscape here". Indeed it would, and not only in
the Six Counties. The weakening of unionist leverage in Britain
would also help to change the British political landscape, away
from the narrow English Tory vision of long-dead imperial glory
to a more democratic future for the people of these islands.