Poll shows demand for unity soaring

The percentage of those in favour of Irish reunification in the Six Counties has jumped by more than a quarter within the past two years, according to a survey carried out by the Royal Irish Academy.

According to the ARINS project (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South), the North of Ireland is undergoing a rapid political transformation which, if continued, will deliver a 52% to 43% majority for Irish unity by 2029.

The project says it aims to provide “independent and unbiased information” on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of Ireland, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a reunited Ireland might look like.

Its headline figures shows that its estimate of those willing to vote for unity in the north of Ireland has vaulted from 27 per cent at the end of 2022 to 34 per cent who would vote in favour today.

The number of Six County Protestants saying they would happily accept reunification jumped to 29% according to the poll. The increase is also attributed to a sharp rise in the proportion of northern Catholics saying they would vote for a united Ireland.

Protestants have grown more open to the idea that a unity referendum should be held, with a clear majority in favour: 44 per cent in favour, versus 37 per cent opposed. This likely reflects a desire for a border poll to be held before frustration sets in.

The survey is all the more shocking as the openly royalist organisation has typically underestimated the strength of support for Irish unity compared to similar surveys.

In the past, RIA academics have also floated the idea of “losers’ consent” among unionists – a form of unionist veto - but its measurement of this has also increased, showing that there is a willingness among unionists to accept a referendum defeat.

If a referendum were held, and were lost by the pro-Union side, the proportion of Six County Protestants who would find the outcome “almost impossible to accept” has declined from a third (32 per cent) to just a fifth (20 per cent) in two years.

Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh TD welcomed the findings that support for Irish unity has grown significantly .

“This ongoing research on constitutional change is very important and should ramp up government action to do the work to prepare for a referendum on Irish Unity including the holding of citizens assemblies,” she said.

Urgent Appeal