Sinn Féin tops exit poll but next government unclear

Sinn Féin has won the most support of the three main parties in the 26 County general election, according to the result of a major national exit poll, but only slightly ahead of the main coalition parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

The results of the poll, conducted by Ipsos B&A, and released just after polls closed, are as follows: Sinn Féin 21.1 per cent, Fianna Fáil 19.5 per cent, Fine Gael 21 per cent, the Social Democrats 5.8 per cent, Labour 5 per cent, the Green Party 4 per cent, Aontú 3.6 per cent, People Before Profit-Solidarity 3.1 per cent, Independent Ireland 2.2 per cent and Independents/others 14.6 per cent.

Some 20% of the second preference vote went to both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%.

If the results of the counts taking place around the country tomorrow bear out the exit poll, it will be the second time in a row that Sinn Féin has won the largest share of the vote, but is left without an obvious path to government.

It is, however, a significant increase on the party’s vote in the local and European elections this year, as well as a recovery from a more recent decline in the polls following a series of internal disputes.

A return to government for the outgoing coalition is also very unclear, and a destabilising fourth party will likely be needed to continue the control of the state by Fianna Fáil’s Micheal Martin and Fine Gael’s Simon Harris.

Of the smaller parties, the exit poll predicts a good result for the Social Democrats and Aontú. This will be a second celebration of the day for Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns, who incredibly gave birth to a baby girl today. Meanwhile, Aontú’s leader Peadar Tóibín looks set to be joined by party colleagues in the Dáil as his party’s vote share is set to double.

In response to the poll, Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy said the only poll that matters is the election result.

He added that he thinks his party had a very good campaign. and that young people had been enthused throughout.

He also said that there is a possibility that Sinn Féin will emerge as the largest party. In terms of government formation, Mr Carthy said that those discussions would have to take place after the votes were counted.

While a Sinn Féin-led government cannot be ruled out, a huge negotiation will likely be required to forge a coalition across the smaller parties and independents.

With the new Dáil not due to meet until December 18th, it seems there is little likelihood of a new government until well into the new year.

As the polls closed, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald posted a photograph of herself and deputy leader Pearse Doherty with a message of “míle buíochas” [a thousand thanks] to those who voted for Sinn Féin and backed “our message of change and hope”.

“A special thanks to our amazing activists who left it all on the pitch in this campaign. We will always work to make life better for workers, families and communities. To unite Ireland. To build a brighter future for all.”

Urgent Appeal