General election 2024 - the battleground constituencies

The key constituencies and candidates that could signal what way the result of the election is going to go, followed by a list of the republican candidates.

CARLOW-KILKENNY

If the news isn’t good, Carlow-Kilkenny is a five-seater that will tell a lot about Mary Lou McDonald’s fortunes. Kathleen Funchion topped the poll for Sinn Féin with almost 24% of the vote in 2020. However, she has since been elected to the European Parliament, leaving Sinn Féin without a clear plan for retaining her seat.

The party has decided on two candidates, but it will be an uphill struggle for Natasha Newsome Drennan who won less than 500 first preferences in the local elections, and Áine Gladney Knox who also failed to get elected in June. And on a very good day, in line with 2020, both could be elected.

Fine Gael has also been forced to seek new blood after a long-serving TD decided not to run. The party has selected David Fitzgerald, Michael Doyle and Catherine Callanan but even two seats may be beyond the,.

Fianna Fáil is confident of retaining both incumbents, John McGuinness and Jennifer Murnane O’Connor, but has its sights set on a possible third seat after selecting local councillor Peter ‘Chap’ Cleere.

Ultimately, it it the Green Party, in the form of the Minister of State Malcolm Noonan, who could lose their seat.

CLARE

With two of the four seats being vacated and a former Sinn Féin TD now running as an Independent, the constituency of Clare is wide open.

Cathal Crowe of Fianna Fáil is hoping to retain his seat with party colleague and sitting senator Timmy Dooley well placed to regain a Dáil seat he lost in 2020.

This is one of no less than four constituencies where former Sinn Féin TDs, pushed out by internal party upheaval, are now running as Independents.

In 2022, Violet-Anne Wynne TD terminated her membership of Sinn Féin, alleging bullying and “psychological warfare” by party functionaries. She is standing again, but having left Sinn Féin, she will be relying on her habit of making local headlines and the constituency’s tradition of electing non-traditional candidates.

With independent Michael McNamara’s election to the European Parliament, there could there be room for a new indepedent or srurprse candidate, and despite being an incumbent, Wynne could fit the bill. Meanwhile, Sinn Féin’s Donna McGettigan will be relying on transfers from a diverse list of candidates if she is to make it over the line and fend off the challenge from left and right to retain the seat for the party.

CAVAN MONAGHAN

An extra seat here makes this five-seater one of the most interesting constituencies.

The 2020 general election saw good news for Sinn Féin in Cavan-Monaghan, where party stalwart Matt Carthy topped the poll with 22.6 per cent of the first preference vote, and running mate Pauline Tully narrowly missing out. With a good flow of transfers, that could well change this time out.

But a lot of attention is focussed on Aontú’s candidate Sarah O’Reilly, arguably its best hope for joining party leader Peadar Tóibín in the Dáil. She who was only eliminated in the 9th count last time out.

Fine Gael’s Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys stunned her party and constituents when she announced in October that she would be joining the long list of incumbent government TDs who are retiring from politics. The party is pinning its hopes now on the cathaoirleach of Cavan County Council, TP O’Reilly, and two other candidates, but their hopes of gaining a seat have likely gone.

There are also some question marks over Fianna Fáil’s ability to hold its two seats, and the destination of the last two seats is anyone’s guess.

GALWAY WEST

The departure of Fianna Fáil veteran, republican Eamon Ó Cuiv – the grandson of Eamon De Valera known as ‘Young Dev’ – has left a huge gap in the political market here which surprisingly no one has attempted to fill.

The party has controversially sought to hold the seat with TV celebrity and political newby Gráinne Seoige. Instead it could be party colleague Ollie Crowe who could take the seat for Fianna Fáil here.

Sinn Féin has given party favourite Mairéad Farrel la clear run at holding her seat, which she should do comfortably. Right-wing independent Noel Grealish and Fine Gael frontrunner Hildegaard Naughton are also widely expected to retain their seats.

Independent Catheron Connolly, a banner candidate for progressives across the country, has always struggled to get over the line, but her higher profile is likely to make the going easier this time out. A second Fine Gael candidate, Sean Kyne, could also be in the running for the final seat.

CORK NORTH-CENTRAL

The four incumbent candidates here seem likely to retain their seats. That means the electoral fight will be about the new, fifth seat in the constituency.

A Sinn Féin target, Thomas Gould topped the poll strongly here in 2020 and enhanced the party’s profile by speaking up emotionally for Gaza, putting a second seat within range for councillor and party press official Joe Lynch.

Fianna Fáil’s Padraig O’Sullivan and Fine Gael’s Colm Burke should be relatively confident of retaining their seats while Mick Barry of People before Profit, who relied on transfers in 2020, should benefit from the addition of the fifth seat. Independent Ireland Councillor Kenneth O’Flynn (formerly of Fianna Fáil) narrowly lost out to Barry last time, by a margin of less than 900 votes, and could be in contention for the final seat.

LAOIS

The midlands constituency that is now a three-seater after it was hived off from the old five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency in the 2023 boundary review.

Brian Stanley ran for Sinn Féin in 2020 and topped the poll with about twice as many first preferences as anyone else. He went on to have a high-profile role as the chairman of the Dáil’s powerful Public Accounts Committee (PAC). However, his shock resignation from Sinn Féin in October following a disastrous internal dispute has transformed the character of the constituency.

The resignation came after Sinn Féin launched an internal inquiry over allegations made by an unidentified woman who had demanded €60,000 from him in cash. Mr Stanley condemned what he said was a ‘kangaroo court’ motivated by a clique seeking to deselect him as a candidate.

With the support of his family, Mr Stanley has bravely confirmed he is contesting the election as an independent republican. He has said locals have also encouraged him to run, that it will be an “uphill battle” but he will “give it my best shot”.

Sinn Féin has insisted the seat “belongs to Sinn Féin” and selected Portlaoise-based community activist Maria McCormack as its candidate. The odds are that Mr Stanley will retain his seat.

The decision of former justice minister and prominent anti-republican Charlie Flanagan not to contest the election has seen Fine Gael select veteran councillor Willie Aird as its candidate.

Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs Seán Fleming, formerly a PAC chairman himself, is seeking re-election for Fianna Fáil. Sensing an opportunity, the party announced Austin Stack as a running mate on the day the election was called. Stack’s father, Chief Prison Officer Brian Stack, was died following an IRA attack in 1983, and he has been a life-long campaigner against Sinn Féin.

WICKLOW

Having undergone significant changes as a result of the boundary re-draw, Wicklow has been cut from five seats to four. However, all of the current TDs are fighting to their retain their seats, meaning at least one will fall.

This is Taoiseach Simon Harris’s constituency and he is expected to top the poll again.

But Fianna Fáil’s Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, a former independent with relatively little support with the party grassroots, is said to be in trouble. Shay Cullen, snubbed by a Fine Gael selection convention and running as an independent, could mop up enough of the FFG vote to overhaul Donnelly.

The area hit the headlines this week when prominent far-right candidate Philip Dwyer (pictured) was accused of assaulting the 66-year-old father of People Before Profit candidate Kellie McConnell during an incident on Main Street in Bray, County Wicklow. Videos and images from the incident show Mr Dwyer, who is running as an independent, brandishing an extendable baton.

The standard bearer of the left will be Sinn Fein’s John Brady, but he has has seen a chunk of what would have been considered his heartland of Arklow, taken away in the boundary redraw.

He should be expected to hold his seat at the expense of Steven Mathews of the Green Party, with Social Democrats TD Jennifer Whitmore likely to hold her seat.

WEXFORD

Former Wexford TD and MEP for Ireland South, anti-imperialist Mick Wallace, joined the race for a seat in the constituency late in the campaign, changing the dynamics of the constituency.

Fianna Fáil incumbent James Brown should hold onto his seat. Fine Gael is likely to hold retiring Paul Kehoe’s seat but George Lawlor of Labour will struggle to hold that of the party’s very high profile retiree, Brendan Howlin.

In a battle between left and right, Verona Murphy, a high-profile FFG Independent who otherwise would be expected to get a seat, could get edged out by Wallace to take a seat on the left if he soaks up Independent votes and transfers.

Despite a poll topping perfoeramef in 2020, Sinn Fein’s Johnny Mythen’s is being given relatively long odds by the bookmakers to hold onto his seat after a poor local election in the constituency, and could be in a dogfight with Wallace and Murphy for the last seat, while Aontú’s Jim Codd also cannot be ruled out.

MAYO

Mayo has gained a seat in the constituency review and is now a five-seater. In addition, the retirement of Fine Gael poll-topper Michael Ring leaves at least two openings. Responding with a wide net, Fine Gael has thrown four candidates into the sprawling constituency, including incumbent Alan Dillon. None of them have a high profile, and the party’s vote could split disastrously.

This is one of Fianna Fáil’s prime targets for a gain. Ballina-based Dara Calleary has comfortably retained his seat since first elected in 2007. Lisa Chambers lost her Dáil seat in 2020 to Rose Conway-Walsh of Sinn Féin. Since then she has maintained a very high profile as Fianna Fáil leader in the Seanad and also as a candidate in the European elections last summer.

Ms Conway-Walsh saw her vote share more than double in 2020 from about 10 per cent to 23 per cent, allowing her to be elected on the first count. The addition of the fifth seat will mean she should be safely reelected. Her running mate, party veteran Gerry Murray, and Aontú’s Paul Lawless could both be in the running for the fifth seat against Fine Gael and FFG independent Patsy O’Brien.

DUBLIN MID WEST

The first thing to grasp about this constituency is the number of Eoin Ó Broin candidates. There are two – Sinn Fein’s well-known housing guru and the other, a less well known candidate for the Social Democrats.

It is unclear if the confusion will affect the outcome. Sinn Féin won more than 40 per cent of the vote in 2020 and it was expected the party would run three candidates here with the addition of an extra seat. It declined to do so, and both Ó Broin and his colleague Mark Ward should be returned comfortably.

Gino Kenny of the left-wing People before Profit should benefit from the addition of an area from Dublin South-West, and his vote will be closely watched as an indicator of the fortunes of the left.

Two right-wing councillors who campaigned strongly on immigration – Linda de Courcy of Independent Ireland and Glen Moore of the Irish Freedom Party – could do well in an area which is host to migrant accommodation centres. The vote here may be telling of whether voter preferences are shifting enough to elect those campaigning to stop immigration.

GALWAY EAST

Galway East is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing constituencies of the 43, with a possibility that only one of the outgoing TDs will be in the 34th Dáil.

The constituency is gaining a seat and Ciarán Cannon is one of 18 Fine Gael TDs who has retired.

Sinn Féin’s Louis O’Hara, then an unknown, came close to winning a seat in 2020 on the back of the Sinn Féin surge. Mr O’Hara has become a councillor since then and has a higher profile. He should be running strongly for a seat and will win handily on a good day.

Veteran independent TD Seán Canney is considered a certainty in a constituency which is an FFG heartland.

Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are eyeing two seats, There is a possibility that if Fianna Fáil gets only one, Minister of State Anne Rabbitte could lose out to party colleague Albert Dolan, who is centrally based. Fine Gael is running three candidates, and hustling Clodagh Higgins, who regained her seat on the council earlier this year, could take one of them, but the last seat is all to play for and could be a surprise.

DUBLIN FINGAL EAST

Dublin Fingal East has been newly created from the break-up of the old Dublin Fingal five-seater in 2023′s constituency review. It includes the large town of Swords as well as Malahide, Portmarnock, Donabate and Portrane.

There is a reasonable chance of both FFG TDs retaining their seats in the newly redrawn constituency. Fianna Fáil minister for housing Darragh O’Brien and Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell both kept much of their support bases across Malahide and Portmarnock.

Sinn Féin’s candidate, Ann Graves, lost her Fingal County Council seat in June’s local election only to later be co-opted on to the local authority after a party colleague stood down for health reasons. Graves has a chance for a seat in the constituency ahead of Labour, if Sinn Féin’s recent surge is borne out.

WICKLOW-WEXFORD

It’s all to play for in this new 3-seat constituency, cobbled together to include Arklow in south Wicklow and Gorey in north Wexford, neither of which has a TD at present.

There isn’t a huge number of candidates as the main parties are aiming for a foothold first time out.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are expected to take one seat each. The last seat looks like it will be between Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin councillor form Gorey Fionntán Ó Suilleabháin and the Arklow Independent councillor Peir Leonard.

If the polls turn out as expected, this should end up on the list of gains for SF.

WATERFORD

Sinn Féin has a chance of a second seat here that would have been nailed on a year ago. The constituency is home to one of its highest vote-getters in Cullinane, and it has a good geographic split along east/west lines, with Conor McGuinness having almost a clear run at west Waterford votes. Sinn Féin bucked the national trend in the local elections here, polling at 21 per cent – 10 points higher than its national figure.

Fine Gael will also be in the running to retake a seat in the constituency, and off the back of local elections where it claimed the most seats of any party. It’s not looking good for the Green Party, although Fianna Fáil will likely hold their seat.

Conor McGuinness will have to find transfers from somewhere to overcome incumbent Independent Matt Shanahan, even if he gets a good first-preference vote, and could end up looking for transfers from Aontú’s Ronan Cleary

CANDIDATES
The number of Dáil seats has increased by 14, bringing the total number of seats to 174, while the number of constituencies has increased from 39 to 43. The increased number of seats and constituencies sees more than 650 candidates on the ballot:

Fianna Fáil (FF) - 81 candidates
Fine Gael (FG) - 81 candidates
Sinn Féin (Sinn Féin) - 71 candidates
Aontú (Aontú) - 43 candidates
Green Party (GP) - 43 candidates
People Before Profit-Solidarity (PBPS) - 42 candidates
Labour Party (LAB) - 32 candidates
Independent Ireland (II) - 28 candidates
Social Democrats (SD) - 26 candidates
The Irish People (IP) - 21 candidates
Irish Freedom Party (IFP) - 16 candidates
National Party (NP) - 9 candidates
Liberty Republic (LR) - 4 candidates
Centre Party of Ireland (CEN) - 3 candidates
Independents 4 Change (I4C) - 3 candidates
Party for Animal Welfare (PAW) - 3 candidates
Rabharta (RAB) - 3 candidates
Ireland First (IF) - 2 candidates
100% Redress (100R) - 1 candidate
Right to Change (RTC) - 1 candidate
Workers’ Party (WP) - 1 candidate
Independent (Independent) - 164 candidates.

The following is a complete list of the republican candidates running in each area:

Carlow-Kilkenny:

Áine Gladney Knox (Sinn Féin)
Natasha Newsome Drennan (Sinn Féin)
Gary O’Neill (Aontú)

Cavan-Monaghan:

Cathy Bennett (Sinn Féin)
Matt Carthy (Sinn Féin)
Sarah O’Reilly (Aontú)
Pauline Tully (Sinn Féin)

Clare:

June Dillon (Aontú)
Donna McGettigan (Sinn Féin)
Violet-Anne Wynne (Independent)

Cork East:

Pat Buckley (Sinn Féin)
Mehdi Özçinar (Sinn Féin)
Mona Stromsoe (Aontú)

Cork North-Central:

Thomas Gould (Sinn Féin)
Joe Lynch (Sinn Féin)
Finian Toomey (Aontú)

Cork North-West:

Becky Kealy (Aontú)
Nicole Ryan (Sinn Féin)

Cork South-Central:

Michelle Cowhey Shahid (Sinn Féin)
Anna Daly (Aontú)
Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire (Sinn Féin)

Cork South-West:

Claire O’Callaghan (Sinn Féin)
Donnchadh Ó Seaghdha (Sinn Féin)
Máiréad Ruane (Aontú)

Donegal:

Pearse Doherty (Sinn Féin)
Noel Jordan (Sinn Féin)
Pádraig Mac Lochlainn (Sinn Féin)
Mary T Sweeney (Aontú)

Dublin Bay North:

Michael Mac Donncha (Sinn Féin)
Denise Mitchell (Sinn Féin)
James Morris (Aontú)

Dublin Bay South:

Chris Andrews (Sinn Féin)
Alan Healy (Aontú)

Dublin Central:

Janice Boylan (Sinn Féin)
Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin)
Ian Smyth (Aontú)

Dublin Fingal East:

Ann Graves (Sinn Féin)
Margaret McGovern (Aontú)

Dublin Fingal West:

Robbie Loughlin (Aontú)
Louise O’Reilly (Sinn Féin)

Dublin Mid-West:

Eoin Ó Broin (Sinn Féin)
Colm Quinn (Aontú)
Mark Ward (Sinn Féin)

Dublin North-West:

Cathleen Carney Boud (Sinn Féin)
Dessie Ellis (Sinn Féin)
Diarmuid Mac Dubhghlais (Independent)

Dublin Rathdown:

Liam Coughlan (Aontú)
Shaun Tracey (Sinn Féin)

Dublin South-Central:

Aisling Considine (Aontú)
Máire Devine (Sinn Féin)
Daithí Doolan (Sinn Féin)
Aengus Ó Snodaigh (Sinn Féin)

Dublin South-West:

Seán Crowe (Sinn Féin)
Saoirse Ní Chónaráin (Aontú)
Niamh Whelan (Sinn Féin)

Dublin West:

Paul Donnelly (Sinn Féin)
Breda Hanaphy (Sinn Féin)
Ellen Troy (Aontú)

Dún Laoghaire:

Shane O’Brien (Sinn Féin)
Maireád Tóibín (Aontú)

Galway East:

Louis O’Hara (Sinn Féin)
Luke Silke (Aontú)

Galway West:

Maireád Farrell (Sinn Féin)
Pádraig Lenihan (Aontú)

Kerry:

Pa Daly (Sinn Féin)
Stephanie O’Shea (Sinn Féin)
Catherina O’Sullivan (Aontú)

Kildare North:

Réada Cronin (Sinn Féin)
Caroline Hogan (Sinn Féin)
Una O’Connor (Aontú)

Kildare South:

Melissa Byrne (Aontú)
Shónagh Ní Raghallaigh (Sinn Féin)
Patricia Ryan (Independent)

Laois:

Mary Hande (Aontú)
Maria McCormack (Sinn Féin)
Brian Stanley (Independent)

Limerick City:

Sarah Beasley (Aontú)
Paul Gavan (Sinn Féin)
Maurice Quinlivan (Sinn Féin)

Limerick County:

Joanne Collins (Sinn Féin)
Michael Ryan (Aontú)

Longford-Westmeath:

Barry Campion (Sinn Féin)
Sorca Clarke (Sinn Féin)
Laura O’Neill (Aontú)

Louth:

Joanna Byrne (Sinn Féin)
Michael O’Dowd (Aontú)
Ruairí Ó Murchú (Sinn Féin)
Antóin Watters (Sinn Féin)

Mayo:

Rose Conway-Walsh (Sinn Féin)
Paul Lawless (Aontú)
Gerry Murray (Sinn Féin)

Meath East:

Darren O’Rourke (Sinn Féin)
Emer Tóibín (Aontú)
Maria White (Sinn Féin)

Meath West:

Johnny Guirke (Sinn Féin)
Peadar Tóibín (Aontú)

Offaly:

Aoife Masterson (Sinn Féin)
Maureen Ward (Aontú)
Carol Nolan (Independent)

Roscommon-Galway:

Claire Kerrane (Sinn Féin)
Cormac Ó Corcoráin (Aontú)

Sligo-Leitrim:

Martin Kenny (Sinn Féin)
Chris MacManus (Sinn Féin)
Graham Monaghan (Aontú)

Tipperary North:

Evan Barry (Sinn Féin)
Dan Harty (Sinn Féin)
Francis O’Toole (Aontú)

Tipperary South:

Martin Browne (Sinn Féin)
Rosemary McGlone (Aontú)

Waterford:

Ronan Cleary (Aontú)
David Cullinane (Sinn Féin)
Conor D McGuinness (Sinn Féin)

Wexford:

Jim Codd (Aontú)
Johnny Mythen (Sinn Féin)

Wicklow:

John Brady (Sinn Féin)
Ciarán Hogan (Aontú)

Wicklow-Wexford:

Sinéad Boland (Aontú)
Fionntán Ó Súilleabháin (Sinn Féin)

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