An assertive republicanism could still win this election

By Ray Bassett (for irishborderpoll.com)

The President of Ireland, Michael D Higgins, dissolved the Dáil, on 8th November and a general election will take place in the Republic on the 29th of this month. The two main coalition parties in Government, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, go into this electoral contest nervous but expectant of a good result on the basis of recent favourable opinion polls. Nervous because there is little enthusiasm for the present administration but hopeful because of the travails of the main opposition party, Sinn Féin.

The initial exchanges in the contest have focused on these two Government parties engaging in sniping at each other over budgetary sums, something that is of little interest to the general electorate. Their other main theme is that they are very anxious to drop the third leg of their coalition, the unpopular Greens. These squabbles and the unfair attack on the teaching profession by Fine Gael associated CEO of Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, has ensured that the Government parties have gotten off to a poor start. The question has to be asked as to whether the Opposition can take advantage of that.

For Sinn Féin and its political leadership in Dublin, the stakes are high. The loss of a significant number of seats would inevitably raise serious question marks over the position of the current party President, Mary Lou McDonald, and her team. It would also represent a serious setback for those wanting to see a greater emphasis on Irish unity, as Sinn Féin is the main political party in the South which has made national reunification a priority. It is true that others pay lip service to the aspiration but in reality, do or say very little about it. To hold its current strength in the Dáil would represent a major triumph for the current Sinn Féinleadership, with the headwinds the party has faced in recent times.

However, given the volatility of public opinion, the outcome of the vote on 29 November is no foregone conclusion. Sinn Féin appeared to have gotten detached from its voters in the last Dáil and made a number of critical misjudgements which cost it dearly in terms of public support. It has tried to regain the trust of its former supporters by refocusing its policies, in areas such as immigration, health, housing, etc. It is trying to concentrate on policy issues as a way of moving on from recent controversies.

The party which operates under the handicap of a strong anti-Republican bias in the mainstream media, has had a low-key start to the campaign. It needs to constantly re-enforce the reality that it represents the only real alternative to the current Government. Its simple message should be that It is all very well voting for radical independents but electing an eclectic bunch of individuals will not change anything at the top or lead to a change of Taoiseach. If the public want to eject the current regime from power, then Sinn Féin is the only vehicle capable of doing so.

At the moment there is a danger that the desire for change in the Republic will be dissipated in the plethora of anti-establishment candidates, seeking the votes of those who dislike the current Government. Sinn Féin needs to gain the initiative by being more radical and assertive.

Attacks on the Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil as representing a choice between Tweedledum and Tweedledee are fine but Sinn Féin needs to demonstrate, in a clear and easily understood way, that it is radically different from these parties. One of the major mistakes Sinn Féin made in the last Dáil was to appear too similar to the parties in Government. Voters supported Sinn Féin before because it was different to other parties, not because it was the same. It needs to be much more critical on the need to preserve free speech and be unafraid to criticise the European Union on policies which undermine Irish national sovereignty. Such articulations would be heresy to current administration parties.

Another way of emphasising its difference to the current set up would be to strategically deploy former Party leader, Gerry Adams, in the campaign. Younger Irish voters are much less squeamish about the role of Republicans in the Troubles than their parents. Adams, in my view, would be a major asset, but might be reluctant to get involved in case it undermines Mary Lou. But the party would appear to be in need of a boost and a more prominent role for him might just be the ticket for that. It would be beneficial to the party’s standing with the disaffected portion of the electorate if media organs like the Irish Times attacked such a move. Attacks on Gerry Adams would be an indicator that the Government parties recognise him as a threat.

The third party in the current coalition Government, the Greens, appear to be facing an uphill battle to remain a force in Irish politics. Even if it polls reasonably well, it is doubtful whether the party will be able to attract transfers, under the proportional representation system. There is open hostility to the Greens from both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael parties. The recent local and European elections demonstrated the reluctance of supporters of other parties to place a preference for the Greens even lower down the voting order. This could be fatal for the reelection prospects of Green TDs who have traditionally scraped in on other party transfers.

Aontú, the splinter party from Sinn Féin, appears poised for a good election result, based on its showing at the local elections and may add to its single seat in the Dáil. While the leader, Peadar Tóibín, is vocal on the party’s commitment to Irish unity, he needs to get more of his Councillors to follow his lead. However, given its small size, it is unlikely to be able to make up for any major losses by Sinn Féin.

The only consistent message from recent political developments is that opinion polls have been consistently wrong in their predictions. Hence there is all to play for over the next few weeks but for those pro united Ireland parties, they need to work hard to convince the electorate that they deserve their support. Almost every recent election, throughout western democracies, has shown a desire for change. Sinn Féin or Aontú needs to demonstrate that they represent real change.

Urgent Appeal