Poll shows expectation of Irish unity within a decade

A majority of people in the Six Counties believe they will be reunited with the rest of Ireland within the next ten years, according to a new poll conducted by European Movement Ireland.

According to its latest 2024 poll, 47% of people in the North believe there will be a united Ireland within the EU over the next decade, compared to 43% who don’t. One in ten responded that they don’t know.

It is the latest in a series of surveys which show increasing support and readiness for Irish reunification.

It came as former 26 County Taoiseach Bertie Ahern said a united Ireland is the ‘most desirable outcome for people and communities’.

Ahern, who has previously been non-committal on the idea, was taking part in a ‘conversation event’ at the Dublin parliament organised by the SDLP.

Mr Ahern said: “I fundamentally believe that the vision for a new Ireland based on the consent of the people who share this island, as set out in the Good Friday Agreement, is not just possible but it is the most desirable outcome for people and communities across Ireland.

“It is not a short-term goal. All of those who believe in change must be committed to putting in the hard yards to build a prospectus that reaches across traditional divides and demonstrates to our unionist neighbours that they will be respected, their traditions will be cherished and their children will be at home in the new Ireland we build together.

“This commission is a serious political project and I look forward to contributing my own experiences of working towards a common goal with communities across Ireland.”

Two academics have been pointing to the economic benefits of unity.

John Doyle of Dublin City University and Brendan O’Leary of the University of Pennsylvania have debunked a claim on the cost of Irish reunification as “overblown” which had overestimated the costs and underestimated the financial gains from unity

They said that the cost of reunification would be €1.3 billion per year, a cost which would be quickly recouped if successful policies in the South were extended to the North.

Rejecting an earlier report by John FitzGerald of Trinity College and Edgar Morgenroth of Dublin City University, they pointed out that Ireland has no liability for British public pensions incurred before reunification occurs, and noted that Britain is already paying pensions to EU residents with pension entitlements.

The report also challenged claims that Ireland would have to shoulder a share of the British national debt.

“If the UK tries to insist in future negotiations that Northern Ireland’s share of its debts should be transferred, then Ireland can simply refuse. No provision in the Good Friday Agreement obliges Ireland to accept any UK debt in the event of unification,” they said.

A simple majority north and south will decide on Irish reunification and it won’t be subject to debt discussions, the professors said.

Instead, unification will see demonstrably successful education and economic policies across the island and it would stand to reason private sector wage levels and tax revenues in the Six Counties would rise, while Belfast would become a high-performing second city, removing pressures from the Dublin area.

They called for more work to prepare for the transitional costs of reunification.

“Doomsters should be free to dislike the prospect of a united Ireland, but, on current evidence, they are not right to suggest it is likely to lead to the mutual ruin of the North and South,” they said.

Urgent Appeal