Westminster election 2015 - constituency profiles

A round-up of the 18 Irish constituencies being contested in the Westminster general election on Thursday.

FERMANAGH AND SOUTH TYRONE

Just four votes kept this seat for Michelle Gildernew in the last election, ahead of united unionist candidate Rodney Connor. Former UUP leader Tom Elliott is the single unionist candidate here and another tough nationalist vs. unionist battle is underway. Every vote will be counted here to ensure that, two days after the anniversary of the death of Bobby Sands -- the seat he famously won -- will not be lost to the man who grabbed attention at the last Assembly election count by roaring about Sinn Fein ‘scum’.

2015 candidates

John Coyle (SDLP)
Tom Elliott (UUP)
*Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Fein)
Tanya Jones (Green Party)
Hannah Su (Alliance)

2010 result

*Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Fein) 21,304 (45.5, +7.3)
Rodney Connor (Ind U) 21,300 (45.5)
Fearghal McKinney (SDLP) 3,574 (7.6, -7.2)
Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 437 (0.9)
John Stevenson (Independent) 188 (0.4)

EAST BELFAST

Years of scheming by the DUP has gone into winning back this seat, and they will be devastated if Gavin Robinson fails to overtake Naomi Long of the cross-community Alliance Party. Her shock victory over DUP leader Peter Robinson was the story of this election five years ago, and her defeat this time out could be equally symbolic -- but perhaps not as unexpected. The unionist pact is at its most cynical here.

2015 candidates

Ross Brown (Green)
*Naomi Long (Alliance)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP)
Niall O Donnghaile (Sinn Fein)
Gavin Robinson (DUP)
Neil Wilson (Conservative)

2010 result

Naomi Long (Alliance) 12,839 (37.2, +26.1)
*Peter Robinson (DUP) 11,306 (32.8, -19.6)
Trevor Ringland (UCUNF) 7,305 (21.2, -9.7)
David Vance (TUV) 1,856 (5.4)
Niall O Donnghaile (Sinn Fein) 817 (2.4, +/-0)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 365 (1.1, -1.0)

SOUTH BELFAST

Sinn Fein has assiduously worked the hyacinth-scented boulevards of this constituency, and they will surely be building on a result here for future elections. Despite the threat posed by Sinn Fein’s own media mogul, Mairtin O Muilleoir, there has been little response from the SDLP party leader, Alasdair McDonnell. Probably the best chance of a gain for Sinn Fein.

2015 candidates

Clare Bailey (Green)
Jonathan Bell (DUP)
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance)
Lily Kerr (Workers Party)
Ben Manton (Conservative)
Rodney McCune (UUP)
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP)
Mairtin O Muilleoir (Sinn Fein)
Bob Stoker (UKIP)

2010 result

*Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 14,026 (41.0, +8.9)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7, -6.1)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3, -4.9)
Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0, +7.8)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0)

NORTH BELFAST

Sinn Fein have been at pains to point to the slight nationalist majority in this constituency, but the use of census figures to highlight the numbers of Catholics versus Protestants may have been counter-productive. Unfortunately, Dodds is likely to take advantage of the unionist pact, as well as sharp divisions among nationalists, and hold his seat.

2015 candidates

*Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Fra Hughes (Independent)
Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein)
Alban Maginness (SDLP)
Jason O’Neill (Alliance)
Gemma Weir (Workers Party)

2010 result

*Nigel Dodds (DUP) 14,812 (40.0, -5.6)
Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) 12,588 (34.0, +5.4)
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,544 (12.3, -3.9)
Fred Cobain (UCUNF) 2,837 (7.7, +0.6)
William Webb (Alliance) 1,809 (4.9, +3.5)
Martin McAuley (Independent) 403 (1.1)

WEST BELFAST

Paul Maskey of the Maskey clann is guaranteed to hold his seat in Sinn Fein’s safest stronghold. Otherwise, socialists will be interested to see if Gerry Carroll can increase his vote.

2015 candidates

Alex Attwood (SDLP)
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit Alliance)
Gerard Catney (Alliance)
Brian Higginson (UKIP)
John Lowry (Workers Party)
Bill Manwaring (UUP)
*Paul Maskey (Sinn Fein)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP)
Paul Shea (Conservative)

2011 by-election result

Paul Maskey (SF) 16,211 (70.6, -0.5)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3088 (13.5, -2.9)
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit) 1751 (7.6)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 1393 (6.1, -1.5)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 386 (1.7, -1.4)
Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 122 (0.5, -1.4)

2010 result

*Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein) 22,840 (71.1, +3.5)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,261 (16.4, +0.4)
William Humphrey (DUP) 2,436 (7.6, -3.2)
Bill Manwaring (UCUNF) 1,000 (3.1 +0.6)
Maire Hendron (Alliance) 596 (1.9 , +1.8)

SOUTH DOWN

A long-standing target seat for Sinn Fein, but it is probably too much to ask the hard-working Chris Hazzard to unseat the quiescent former SDLP leader Ritchie -- this time around.

2015 candidates

Felicity Buchan (Conservatives)
Chris Hazzard (Sinn Fein)
Harold McKee (UUP)
Henry Reilly (UKIP)
*Margaret Ritchie (SDLP)
Martyn Todd (Alliance)
Jim Wells (DUP)

2010 result

Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) 20,648 (48.5, +1.7)
Caitriona Ruane (Sinn Fein) 12,236 (28.7, +1.7)
Jim Wells (DUP) 3,645 (8.6, -7.5)
John McCallister (UCUNF) 3,093 (7.3 -1.5)
Ivor McConnell (TUV) 1,506 (3.5)
Cadogan Enright (Green) 901 (2.1)
David Griffin (Alliance) 560 (1.3, +/-0)

NEWRY AND ARMAGH

GAA football star Justin McNulty, a surprise celebrity selection by the SDLP, looks like something of a lightweight alongside political veteran Mickey Brady, who should retain Conor Murphy’s former seat for Sinn Fein despite the unionist pact operating here.

2015 candidates

Mickey Brady (Sinn Fein)
Danny Kennedy (UUP)
Justin McNulty (SDLP)
Kate Nicholl (Alliance)
Robert Rigby (Conservative)

2010 result

*Conor Murphy (Sinn Fein) 18,857 (42.0, +0.6)
Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 10,526 (23.4, -1.8)
Danny Kennedy (UCUNF) 8,558 (19.1, +5.2)
William Irwin (DUP) 5,764 (12.8, -5.6)
William Frazer (Independent) 656 (1.5)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 545 (1.2)

FOYLE

Gearoid O Heara has taken up the flag for Sinn Fein from Martina Anderson, now an MEP. In theory Sinn Fein should benefit from the absence of socialist campaigner Eamonn McCann to challenge the SDLP’s Mark Durkan for the seat this time out, but a lot will depend on whether unionists vote tactically to keep SF out.

2015 candidates

Hamish Badenoch (Conservative)
*Mark Durkan (SDLP)
David Hawthorne (Alliance)
Julia Kee (UUP)
Gary Middleton (DUP)
Gearoid O Heara (Sinn Fein)
Kyle Thompson (UKIP)

2010 result

*Mark Durkan (SDLP) 16,922 (44.7, -1.7)
Martina Anderson (Sinn Fein) 12,098 (31.9 -1.4)
Maurice Devenney (DUP) 4,489 (11.9, -2.2)
Eamonn McCann (People Before Profit) 2,936 (7.8)
David Harding (UCUNF) 1,221 (3.2, +0.9)
Keith McGrellis (Alliance) 223 (0.6)

UPPER BANN

The UUP have put in a big effort here to promote Jo-Anne Dobson, but few expect her to unseat the bible-thumping David Simpson of the DUP. Sinn Fein’s Catherine Seeley could get in among the pigeons.

2015 candidates

Amandeep Bhogal (Conservative)
Jo-Anne Dobson (UUP)
Damien Harte (Workers Party)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP)
Martin Kelly (Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol)
Peter Lavery (Alliance)
Catherine Seeley (Sinn Fein)
*David Simpson (DUP)

2010 result

*David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8, -3.8)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7, +0.2)
John O’Dowd (Sinn Fein) 10,237 (24.7, +3.7)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7, -0.2)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0, +0.8)

MID-ULSTER

Sinn Fein’s Francie Molloy took over from the party deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness in a by-election here two year ago, and has some years yet to serve in a safe seat for the party.

2015 candidates

Eric Bullick (Alliance)
Alan Day (UKIP)
Gareth Ferguson (TUV)
Ian McCrea (DUP)
*Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein)
Lucille Nicholson (Conservative)
Sandra Overend (UUP)
Malachy Quinn (SDLP)
Hugh Scullion (Workers Party)

2013 by-election result

Francie Molloy (SF) 17,462 (46.9, -5.1)
Nigel Lutton (Independent) 12,781 (34.4)
Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 6,478 (17.4, +3.1)
Eric Bullick (Alliance) 487 (1.3, +0.3)

2010 result

*Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein) 21,239 (52.0, +4.4)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 5,876 (14.4, -9.1)
Tony Quinn (SDLP) 5,826 (14.3, -3.1)
Sandra Overend (UCUNF) 4,509 (11.0, +0.3)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,995 (7.3)
Ian Butler (Alliance) 397 (1.0)

WEST TYRONE

A happy status quo for Sinn Fein’s Pat Doherty here.

2015 candidates

Barry Brown (Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol)
Tom Buchanan (DUP)
*Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein)
Stephen Donnelly (Alliance)
Ross Hussey (UUP)
Claire-Louise Leyland (Conservatives)
Ciaran McClean (Green Party)
Daniel McCrossan (SDLP)
Susan-Anne White (Independent)

2010 result

*Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein) 18,050 (48.4, +9.5)
Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 7,365 (19.8, +2.0)
Ross Hussey (UCUNF) 5,281 (14.2, +7.3)
Joe Byrne (SDLP) 5,212 (14.0, +4.9)
Michael Bower (Alliance) 859 (2.3)
Ciaran McClean (Independent) 508 (1.4)

NORTH ANTRIM

Ian Paisley Jr. will be leading the singing of ‘God Save the Queen’ once again in one of the DUP’s safest seats, but it will also be interesting to watch the votes here for unionist ultra, TUV leader Jim Allister.

2015 candidates

Jayne Dunlop (Alliance)
Carol Freeman (Conservative)
Timothy Gaston (TUV)
Robert Hill (UKIP)
Daithi McKay (Sinn Fein)
Declan O’Loan (SDLP)
*Ian Paisley (DUP)
Thomas Palmer (Independent)
Robin Swann (UUP)

2010 result

Ian Paisley (DUP) 19,672 (46.4, -10.2)
Jim Allister (TUV) 7,114 (16.8)
Daithi McKay (Sinn Fein) 5,265 (12.4, -1.8)
Irwin Armstrong (UCUNF) 4,634 (10.9, -4.1)
Declan O’Loan (SDLP) 3,738 (8.8, -2.2)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,368 (3.2, +0.1)
Lyle Cubitt (Independent) 606 (1.4)

EAST ANTRIM

Three Wilsons to choose from, but the DUP’s version is again very safe in this unionist heartland.

2015 candidates

Roy Beggs (UUP)
Stewart Dickson (Alliance)
Noel Jordan (UKIP)
Margaret McKillop (SDLP)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Fein)
Alex Wilson (Conservative)
Ruth Wilson (TUV)
*Sammy Wilson (DUP)

2010 result

*Sammy Wilson (DUP) 13,993 (45.9, -1.0)
Rodney McCune (UCUNF) 7,223 (23.7, -1.4)
Gerry Lynch (Alliance) 3,377 (11.1, -3.6)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Fein) 2,064 (6.8, +1.4)
Justin McCamphill (SDLP) 2,019 (6.6, -0.8)
Samuel Morrison (TUV) 1,826 (6.0)

SOUTH ANTRIM

A little-known UUP candidate is unlikely to trouble country-singing Willie McCrea. Sinn Fein are looking to party strategist Declan Kearney to increase on the vote built up over the years by Mitchel McLaughlin.

2015 candidates

Richard Cairns (TUV)
Alan Dunlop (Conservative)
Declan Kearney (Sinn Fein)
Neil Kelly (Alliance)
Danny Kinahan (UUP)
Roisin Lynch (SDLP)
*William McCrea (DUP)

2010 result

*William McCrea (DUP) 11,536 (33.9, -6.4)
Reg Empey (UCUNF) 10,353 (30.4, +0.8)
Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Fein) 4,729 (13.9, +3.2)
Michelle Byrne (SDLP) 2,955 (8.7 -2.5)
Alan Lawther (Alliance) 2,607 (7.7, -0.6)
Melwyn Lucas (TUV) 1,829 (5.4)

NORTH DOWN

The principality of north Down is likely to return former UUP MP Sylvia Hermon, again running as an independent and not being challenged by her former party. The DUP are hoping for a beach-head in this unpredictable but overwhelmingly unionist constituency.

2015 candidates

Steven Agnew (Green Party)
Mark Brotherston (Conservative)
William Cudworth (TUV)
Glenn Donnelly (Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol)
Alex Easton (DUP)
*Sylvia Hermon (Independent)
Jonny Lavery (UKIP)
Therese McCartney (Sinn Fein)
Andrew Muir (Alliance)
Tom Woolley (SDLP)

2010 result

*Sylvia Hermon (Independent) 21,181 (63.3)
Ian Parsley (UCUNF) 6,817 (20.4, -32.5)
Stephen Farry (Alliance) 1,876 (5.6, -2.0)
Mary Kilpatrick (TUV) 1,634 (4.9)
Steven Agnew (Green) 1,043 (3.1)
Liam Logan (SDLP) 680 (2.0, -1.1)
Vincent Parker (Sinn Fein) 250 (0.8, +0.2)

STRANGFORD

Sitting DUP MP Jim Shannon likely to be untroubled by another little-known UUP candidate. Relatively few votes here again for nationalists, but Sinn Fein could compete with the SDLP as Claire Hanna steps away.

2015 candidates

Johnny Andrews (Conservatives)
Kellie Armstrong (Alliance)
Sheila Bailie (Sinn Fein)
Joe Boyle (SDLP)
Robert Burgess (UUP)
Stephen Cooper (TUV)
Joe Jordan (UKIP)
*Jim Shannon (DUP)

2010 result

Jim Shannon (DUP) 14,926 (45.9%, -4.9%)
Mike Nesbitt (UCUNF) 9,050 (27.8%,+2.6%)*
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 2,828 (8.7%, +0.3%)
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 2,164 (6.7%, -1.5%)
Terry Williams (TUV) 1,814 (5.6%)
Michael Coogan (Sinn Fein) 1,161 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Barbara Haig (Green) 562 (1.7%)

LAGAN VALLEY

Fairly token UUP opposition here to the DUP’s Jeffrey Donaldson, who has made this seat his own. The nationalist candidates will have their own fun.

2015 candidates

Pat Catney (SDLP)
*Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP)
Alan Love (UKIP)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance)
Jacqui McGeough (Sinn Fein)
Samuel Morrison (TUV)
Jonny Orr (Independent)
Helen Osborne (Conservative)
Alexander Redpath (UUP)

2010 result

*Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 18,199 (49.8, -8.5)
Daphne Trimble (UCUNF) 7,713 (21.1, -1.9)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,174 (11.4, +0.5)
Keith Harbinson (TUV) 3,154 (8.6)
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,835 (5.0, +1.5)
Paul Butler (Sinn Fein) 1,465 (4.0, -0.3)

EAST DERRY

Campbell’s bigoted ‘curry my yoghurt’ comments about the Irish language will have only curried favour among the unionist backwoodsmen here. A safe seat for the DUP.

2015 candidates

Caoimhe Archibald (Sinn Fein)
Yvonne Boyle (Alliance)
*Gregory Campbell (DUP)
William McCandless (UUP)
Gerry Mullan (SDLP)
Neil Paine (Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol)
Elizabeth St Clair-Legge (Conservatives)

2010 result

*Gregory Campbell (DUP) 12,097 (34.6, -6.4)
Cathal O hOisin (Sinn Fein) 6,742 (19.3, +1.9)
Lesley Macaulay (UCUNF) 6,218 (17.8, -1.9)
Thomas Conway (SDLP) 5,399 (15.5 -3.8)
William Ross (TUV) 2,572 (7.4)
Barney Fitzpatrick (Alliance) 1,922 (5.5, +3.1)

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