When politicians get too far ahead of their electorate they risk marching over a cliff-edge; when columnists write too far ahead of events, they risk smashing a custard pie into their own face. As I write this, the north of Ireland’s senior politicians, along with the prime ministers of Britain and Ireland are at Hillsborough Castle outside Belfast, bleary-eyed after an all-night attempt to find agreement between two parties with a wary eye on their respective electorate.