Republican News · Thursday 9 January 2003

People still have a world to win

BY ROBBIE MacGABHANN

Whose world is it anyway? This week, hundreds of thousands of Irish people returned to work, facing into a year where their future is less secure than any time in the last ten years.

Rising unemployment, less disposable income, with VAT and other price increases on electricity and gas kicking in from 1 January, are just the latest examples of how ordinary people are worse off in real terms this January than they were last year. When you add in rising international oil prices, you have yet another price hike that will culminate in the average household footing the bill.

So who is winning and will win again in 2003? It seems bound to be a good year for the international arms industry, but no doubt many in the business community as a whole will benefit again in 2003, even though 2002 was a year when the rotten core of how business operates internationally and in Ireland was exposed in scandal after scandal.

Perhaps the common theme throughout the scandals at ENRON, World Com, Elan and AIB, for example, was how either ordinary workers or customers were the real losers.

It there is a theme for 2003, it must be that we question everything, asking the simple question of who is really gaining from what we see happening domestically and internationally. Who are the real winners? We need to know for whose benefit we are really working. If it isn't the ordinary person, their families and communities who do the work, make the effort but also pay the cost when things go wrong, then something is very badly wrong.

SAME OLD STORY?

The New Year has begun in a much similar way as did 2002, with the United States and its allies contemplating war with their ever-growing 'Axis of Evil'. At the same time, the global economic axis that the North American and European economies are the centre of is still stumbling on the edge of a serious crisis.

In Ireland our economy, the most globalised in the world, is also teetering on the brink of a serious economic downturn. On the one hand there is anxious watching of the international environment, particularly the US economy, where the coming months will see whether the growth and jobs package announced this week by US President Bush will kick start their economy.

Then there are our domestic economic managers. In the 26 Counties, eyes will be on McCreevy, Harney and Ahern to see if there is even a glimmer of new thinking in their economic management strategies.

There is not much hope for substantial change in the Six-County economy's management either. It is condemned to another year caught between euro and sterling and not fully integrated into a dynamic island unit, while being ignored by a preoccupied London government, so no change there.

Don't hold your breath though either for Bush to deliver economic growth or for the Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrat coalition to take some decisive action. Do expect more of the same inequality, inaction and worst of all, more exploitation of not just the weakest groups in society but the ordinary worker as well.

BANKING ON SUCCESS

If you want to get ahead in business, banking and financial services should be the thing for you. So AIB had a bad year and ended up losing €700 million through the Allfirst debacle. But did you notice, it barely seemed to take the wind out of their sails. They still managed to rack up pre-tax profits of €1,370 million, just ahead of Bank of Ireland's €1,084 million. Even down the league, the smaller banks were making millions. €79 million for Irish Permanent and Life, €196 million for Anglo Irish Bank, and the list goes on.

Ok, so you might not be able to open your own bank in 2003, but don't give up; you can still enter this lucrative industry and add yourself to the list of 57 licensed money lenders in the 26 Counties, who currently have €57 million on loan and are levying annual interest rates of almost 200%.

First mad suggestion of 2003 is to make the hugely profitable banks buy out these debts and liberate the thousands of families trapped in this neverending cycle of debt.

POLITICAL POWER

What better place to sit out a recession than in government. While we are still waiting for benchmarking increases to be paid and the partnership talks have foundered, there seems little hope of workers getting tangible wage increases in 2003.

Last October, government ministers all got pay rises with an extra €8,000 for Bertie Ahern, giving him an annual €209,885. Mary Harney got an extra €7,000, with ordinary ministers having to be content with an increase of €6,000 a year. It seems there will be no pay freeze for ministers.

Other fringe benefits, apart from free cars, etc, include ministerial pensions, even though you are still a TD. So hats off to Michael Noonan, John Bruton, Ruairi Quinn, Jim O'Keefe, Liz MacManus, Pat Rabbitte, Emmet Stagg and others, who are still working and getting ministerial pensions.

While it looks likely that politicians will in 2003 be the only group of people likely to get wage increases, mad suggestion two of 2003 could be to have a pay freeze on political wages.

WAGE INEQUALITY

So a career in politics doesn't suit? What about business? The average basic wage of the top ten chief executives in Irish business was €759,000 in 2001, while average earnings of an ordinary worker were €24,518. The top earners were clearing 31 times the average industrial wage. When you include bonuses like pension contributions and share offers, the ratio jumps to 58 times the average wage.

In 2003, this disparity is only set to grow. In the USA, the top chief executives were earning 458 times the income of the average worker.

Mad suggestion three is that bosses' wages in 2003 should not exceed the average increase paid to workers.

HOUSING BOOM

Maybe you want to enter a niche industry? Look no further than housing and with the new amendments to the 2000 Planning and Development Bill, the future has never looked brighter. House prices went up by at least 11% in 2002, double the rate of inflation and still even further than the cost of building a house. Get in now.

Mad suggestion four is putting a price ceiling on new house prices and the price of development land.

JOBS CRISIS

Steer clear of actually trying to start a new business, as the future does not look good. Total employment in IDA-backed firms fell in 2002 by 2.2% and industrial job numbers fell to a five year low, with 18,100 jobs lost in the first nine months of 2002. 26-County firms fared little better, with Enterprise Ireland firms losing 4,000 jobs in 2002.

There is little to make you think that this will change in 2003, so a career in banking, housing or politics looks like a much better bet for 2003.

FARMING

If it hadn't already become obvious to you this week, as farmers protest around the country, that this is not a business for the future, it doesn't mean you should abandon agriculture altogether. Farm incomes may be dropping but agribusiness is ever more profitable.

Kerry Group racked up profits of €189 million last year, IAWS had €70.5 million, €60 million for Greencore and the list goes on. So if you do feel like the country life, get into food processing rather than producing.

HAPPY NEW YEAR

It seems that 2003 will be very much a re-run of last year. Customers will be paying more for less and workers are still losing out to the profits being racked up for their bosses. Happy New Year!