Republican News · Thursday 17 October 2002

Doorsteps defy pollsters

BY JOANNE CORCORAN

Reading the papers this week, anyone could be forgiven for thinking that everybody intends to vote 'Yes' in the Nice referendum on Saturday. The establishment media would have you believe that despite the fact the first referendum was defeated and this is a mere repeat, nobody is affronted by the government's cheek in rerunning the referendum and that everyone is content to go down the Yes road this time. The Sunday Independent used as a big headline on its front page this week, 'We will serve our national interests by voting YES' and proceeded to say that the Yes vote would win by 3:2. But such happy predictions by the establishment's cheerleaders don't bear any resemblance to the response that canvassers for Sinn Féin are receiving on the doorsteps.

In Dublin, for example, supporters, along with Sinn Féin TDs and councillors, have spent the last few weeks delivering leaflets and canvassing the doors of Dublin on the upcoming referendum.

"We're not getting the positive feeling for Yes at the doors that the newspapers keep saying is out there," says Larry O'Toole, councillor for Dublin North-East. "In fact, in the last few nights I've heard nothing but 'Nos' and 'I don't know'."

In TD Aengus Ó Snodaigh's area of Dublin South-Central, his wife and Director of Elections, Aisling, says they are getting a massive response from the area. "I would say that almost 75% of the doors we are knocking on are either 'No' or are leaning that way," she says. "The only problem in our constituency is getting the people out to vote. The fact that this is the second time they are being asked to come out is an obstacle in itself. They don't see the point in voting again, if their answer wasn't accepted the first time."

Larry O'Toole is facing the same problem in his area.

"Europe is an issue which people don't feel connected to. They looked at the first treaty, and the small number that went out to vote ended up rejecting it. People also feel that it is being forced upon them too enthusiastically by the government this time."

Patricia Smith, who lives in Larry's constituency, is one of those who is wary of the government's attempts to win a 'Yes' vote.

"They are doing what they always do when they want to get their own way," she said. "They are spending an absolute fortune on propaganda, and treating us as if we're all thick. I wasn't confused when I voted 'No' last time. I don't think anybody was. And anyway, do they honestly think that anyone will trust what they say after all the stunts they've pulled since May?"

So what are the reasons for people disobeying the governments wishes and voting 'No' again?

Aisling says that people are citing lack of trust with the government as the main reason for their 'No' vote.

"That's the predominant feeling we are getting," she says. "But in addition to that, many people are saying that the notion of a European army frightens them, and they don't seem to have been won over by the pointless Seville declaration."

Larry is finding that the same issue is cropping up in his area. "People are saying to me 'I don't want to see my son or daughter having to fight in a war ten years down the line'. The Irish people seem to be fonder of their neutrality than the government thinks."

Patricia says she has read all the leaflets again this time but will still be voting 'No'.

"I don't think, from what I have read, that voting 'No' will prevent enlargement from taking place. First they were saying in Europe that it didn't matter for enlargement if we voted 'No', now they are saying it does. It's just another group of politicians who keep changing their minds and telling us how to vote. I have heard on television that enlargement can go ahead for some countries through the Amsterdam and Maastricht Treaties and that the rest of it will just be delayed. I also don't want us to lose our equal say as many of the losses we can expect seem to be pointing to."

Patricia is one of those more informed on the Nice Treaty. However there are many people who still, even though this is the second referendum, don't understand what it is about.

"I am hearing a lot of uncertainty on the doorsteps as to what it is all about," Larry says. "This adds to my belief that people aren't as interested in Europe as the government seems to be relying on."

Aisling says the best thing about canvassing so far has been the positive response to Sinn Féin on the doorsteps. "I was worried after all the events in the last week that the media has used to portray Sinn Féin once again in a bad light, that this would be the issue on the doorsteps.

"This hasn't been the case. People have been wishing us good luck and saying that they support our stand against the Treaty. We have all been really delighted."

d how do Larry and Aisling feel the referendum will go?

"Well, reading the papers and watching the news would have you worried," says Larry. "But I don't understand where they are getting their statistics from, because we are definitely not hearing all 'Yes's' on the doorsteps. If people go out and vote the way they say they are going to vote, then it could be another victory for the 'No' side."

Aisling says the same. "We'll get them out to vote," she says. "They came out for Aengus, and although Nice isn't nearly as important, the actions of the government since the election should be enough to spur them on."