Sinn Féin rolling to victory
As the electorate go to the polls, MICHAEL PIERSE takes a look at some of the constituencies in which Sinn Féin is on a roll.
In four Westminster constituencies, a well-oiled Sinn Féin machine is looking to take seats, with Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness shoe-ins, while Pat Doherty looks to have seen off a late challenge from Bríd Rodgers and Michelle Gildernew is copnfident in Fermanagh and South Tyrone after an excellent campaign. Elsewhere, the party is expected to make significant gains. Sinn Féin is likely to take 100 seats at local council level, a giant electoral leap from the 74 seats currently held.
West Tyrone
West Tyrone, the Westminster constituency that has magnetised more media attention than anywhere else, will probably prove the most entertaining of counts also.
Pat Doherty of Sinn Féin's vote has rose consistently in recent years, along with that of the the party's local election candidates on the ground. The SDLP ploy of introducing Brid Rodgers, the high-profile SDLP Minister for Agriculture, had been designed to boost the party's waning fortunes in the West. However, a ``whinge campaign'' is how Pat Doherty has described Rodger's antics over recent weeks.
The SDLP have ladened their efforts in the area with allegations of having been abused and insulted at the doorsteps. While they claimed they were attacked by residents in one estate hurling eggs, the accusation that this was organised by Sinn Féin conveyed the depths of SDLP desperation.
``The assumption that every time something happens is down to Sinn Féin is a nonsense,'' Pat Doherty said. ``Our workers are too busy to be involved with anything like throwing stones.''
South Down SDLP have also made allegations. This time they are claiming that republicans are `intimidating' elderly people into voting for Sinn Féin. Sounds like the `Stoops' are bending over backwards to explain away impending electoral losses.
Doherty said that the SDLP are buckling under the pressure of a strong, methodical Sinn Féin electoral machine. ``If you can't stand the heat, then get out of the kitchen,'' he advised.
The Sinn Féin candidate can well afford to be assured - Sinn Féin in the area has seen an extraordinary growth in support in recent times. In the 1998 Assembly elections, the party grew to 9 percentage points ahead of the SDLP and 1 per cent ahead of the combined UUP and DUP vote. Also on the SF side is the 3 per cent first-time vote in the area, with the party showing a trend in picking up younger voters. Watch this space.
Fermanagh/South Tyrone
Twenty years ago, hunger striker Bobby Sands was made an MP by the electorate of Fermanagh/South Tyrone, a huge symbol of defiance that will resonate again in today's election.
Sinn Féin's candidate, Michelle Gildernew, is seeking to outpoll the unionist and SDLP parties in the area, but also the patriarchy of Westminster that has seen the exclusion of Irish women candidates for over 30 years. The last woman to be elected MP in the Six Counties was Bernadette Devlin, all the way back in 1970.
Gildernew now has an odds-on chance of wrestling the Fermanagh/South Tyrone seat back following the resignation of sitting UUP MP, Ken Maginnis.
Speaking to An Phoblacht, Gildernew said that the party is predicting an ``incredible'' increase in support. ``We know that we're going to elect the first republican MP in the area since Bobby Sands and the first female MP from the Six Counties since Bernadette Devlin,'' she said.
Sinn Féin believes it will increase its number of councillors from six to nine in Fermanagh and from two to five or six in South Tyrone. ``The writing's on the wall,'' Gildernew said. ``The response we're getting on the doors is very encouraging.''
Nationalists and republicans in the area have long been frustrated at misrepresentation and neglect from local unionist politicians. In the 1998 Assembly elections that frustration transformed into a 5.3 per cent Sinn Féin lead on the SDLP, and a lead of 2.2 per cent on the UUP. That growth set in train the vital confidence factor which points the way towards a Sinn Féin seat.
I predict that the SDLP's Tommy Gallagher will well and truly have egg on his face the morning after this election.
Mid Ulster
You can put the mortgage on this one. Well, you could if anyone was taking bets. Martin McGuinness's and Sinn Féin's vote in the Mid Ulster constituency is rock solid and likely to undergo further growth this week.
A marginal victory for the Sinn Féin Chief Negotiator in 1997 was followed by a 40 per cent vote for the party in the following year's Assembly elections, five per cent ahead of the combined forces of unionism. Eilís, the daughter of SDLP Assembly member for the area, Denis Haughey, will be well outpolled.
McGuinness' performance as Minister for Education will bolster not only his profile, but that of Sinn Féin's local election candidates. Throughout the constituency, the party expect to gain five or six council seats, two of these on Magherafelt District Council.
Standing for Magherafelt Council is local Sinn Féin Assembly Member, John Kelly. He has the unenviable task of standing also for the Westminster constitency of North Anrtim. Surprisingly, Kelly is buoyed by his canvassing in Antrim. ``Ballymena was very encouraging and there is a great potential for (Sinn Féin) growth there,'' he told An Phoblacht. ``Nationalists there are getting a lot of heart from our presence in this campaign.''
While loyalists took down the Sinn Féin posters in the area, several hours after they were erected, Kelly said he felt confident that unprecedented numbers will vote Sinn Féin.
Newry/South Armagh
area that Sinn Féin President, Gerry Adams, described as ``one to watch'' this week. While Séamus Mallon of the SDLP is expected to maintain his Westminster seat here, Sinn Féin's Conor Murphy will at the very least confirm his position as MP in waiting.
Between 1997 and 1998, the SDLP vote dropped by eight per cent, with Sinn Féin gaining five per cent. That was three years ago, and the swing is set to leave Mallon and his supporters with a bad hangover this weekend. An embarrassment for Mallon will be a body blow for the SDLP.
``We're getting very positive feedback,'' Conor Murphy tells An Phoblacht as we go to print. But will there be a shock on the cards for the SDLP? ``I think so; I think they are beginning to become aware of the swing to Sinn Féin. But for them it might be a case of too little, too late.''
Sinn Féin is aiming to be largest party on Newry and Mourne District Council and double its representation on Armagh District Council, Murphy said. The party also aims to tip the balance in Armagh Council from a unionist majority to a majority of nationalist and republican councillors.
Whoever Sinn Féin gets elected this weekend, it is certain the party will make impressive gains and set the stage for further electoral success, both north and south.
![[An Phoblacht]](http://republican-news.org/graphics/title_gifs/aprn.gif)