Dublin could be heaven for Crowe
BY ROBBIE MacGABHANN
Sinn Féin's candidate is Sean Crowe, who narrowly missed out on a Leinster House seat for the party in 1997. It is recognised across the political spectrum that the party's support is growing in all parts of the city and that Sinn Féin can double their 1994 poll showing with ease. |
Apart from massive disinterest from the electorate, the actual campaign was characterised by dissent and disputes between party members. Labour Party leader Dick Spring insisted on parachuting in then RTE journalist Veronica Guerin alongside Bernie Malone, who had become Labour's MEP for Dublin when Barry Desmond retired to his £120,000-a-year tax-free job in the EU Court of Auditors.
Malone and a lot of Labour Party members in Dublin were seriously upset at Spring's actions. There were in essence two separate election campaigns. It must be dèja vu for Bernie Malone, as this time she has to contend with Prionsias De Rossa as her Labour running mate.
De Rossa had been elected as an MEP for the Workers' Party in 1989. As the party split with New Agenda and then Democratic Left (DL) emerging as a new political party, De Rossa gave up his MEP seat to Des Geraghty, who then prepared himself as the DL candidate for the Euro election. Election literature arrived at many Dublin doors with Geraghty's name and picture. However in early 1994, Pat Rabbitte emerged as the DL candidate. He was eliminated on the 11th count, leaving Banotti and Bernie Malone elected without reaching the quota.
The huge surprise of the 1994 election was that the Greens' Patricia McKenna topped the poll, followed by Banotti, Andrews and Jim Mitchell. Fianna Fáil had also run Olive Braiden as their parachute candidate but she failed to add to the seat chances.
This time around, Fine Gael is running the same team as in 1994. Fianna Fáil has inexplicably put two southside candidates on their ticket. Patricia McKenna is also seeking to keep her seat and should hold it against stiff competition.
Sinn Féin's candidate is Sean Crowe, who narrowly missed out on a Leinster House seat for the party in 1997. It is recognised across the political spectrum that the party's support is growing in all parts of the city and that Sinn Féin can double their 1994 poll showing with ease.
Across the candidates running you cannot but get that lottery feeling. Fine Gael ran two strong candidates in 1994 and won almost 24% of first preferences. Even a small slump in votes this time around could leave both Mitchell and Banotti out in the cold. The same logic applies to Fianna Fáil. If the vote for Andrews and Briscoe slumps, you could see either candidate slugging it out on the last counts to secure the one seat.
This leaves the way open for the other candidates and for a major upset, especially in the context of massive public disillusion with the three big parties. Maybe Seán Crowe should make sure his passport is up to date just in case.
Final prediction: FF and FG to hold one seat just, with a huge fight for the last two seats leading probably to McKenna and one Labour candidate elected. Use your preferences wisely.