The Ferris Factor
Martin Ferris is the key to victory and defeat in the four-seater EU
Munster constituency. Sinn Féin polled 5,171 votes in this constituency in
1994. Then, most of party's efforts went into securing UDC and Town
Commission seats for the party.
This time around. Sinn Féin is contesting over 30 council seats across the
province. The party's strong showing in the 1997 Leinster House election
has galavanised the party and sent a message that Sinn Fein are growing as
a political force.
In 1997 Sinn Féin polled 8,879 votes just running in three constituencies,
with Ferris pulling in 5,691 first preferences in North Kerry alone.
In 1994, Fianna Fáil's Brian Crowley topped the poll and was elected on the
first count. After nine counts, Gerry Collins took a second seat for Fianna
Fáil. Fine Gael's John Cushnahan and independent Pat Cox won the last two
seats without reaching the quota on the 12th count.
This time around it will be a lot more difficult for Fianna Fáil to hold
onto their second seat. Pat Cox has made the headlines recently with a
strong performance in the European Parliament. It remains to be seen how
impressed the Munster voters are with Cox's record.
The decision by the Progressive Democrats not to run a candidate in this
election throws a wild card into the Munster pack. Dessie O'Malley took
8.7% of the vote here in 1994. His transfers were not distributed so it is
unclear where the PD votes will go this time around.
Martin Ferris has been a strong performer for Sinn Féin nationally and is
probably the best known Sinn Féin public figure outside of the three
parliamentarians. It would be a long shot to say he can take a seat but ask
any of the other parties contesting this election and they will tell you
that Martin Ferris is the dark horse.
Certainly, like Seán Crowe in Dublin, Ferris will perform well and at the
very least the Sinn Féin vote share should more than double from its 1997
outing. The second factor is where would Ferris's transfers travel to if he
was eliminated. In 1994, Sinn Féin's Kieran McCarthy transferred votes
acros the political spectrum.
Final prediction: One seat for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. After that the
games begin in earnest for the last two seats. Again, Sinn Féin voters
should use those prefernces wisely.
Lift
Martin Ferris has been a strong performer for Sinn Féin nationally and is
probably the best known Sinn Féin public figure outside of the three
parliamentarians. It would be a long shot to say he can take a seat but ask
any of the other parties contesting this election and they will tell you
that Martin Ferris is the dark horse.
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