Photofinish in the Six Counties
BY ROBBIE MacGABHANN
The Six Counties produced the highest turnout of the five Irish EU
constituencies in 1994. 49% of the Six-County electorate turned out to vote
in an election that only went to two counts. Ian Paisley topped the poll
for the fourth consecutive time, with the SDLP's John Hume running him
close.
Sinn Féin ran three candidates in the 1994 election. Tom Hartley, Dodie
McGuinness and Francie Molloy got just under 10% of the total poll for the
party.
Since 1994, the Sinn Féin vote has grown consistently. In last year's
Assembly election the party won a record vote, polling 17.6% of the total
poll. Sinn Féin also recorded the largest gain in vote share of any party
in the election.
There will be considerably more interest in the EU election this time
around to see in particular the state of play in the unionist electorate.
Unionist voters in the Six Counties have in the past floated between the
parties depending on the election being contested. The UUP have always
performed significantlty better than the DUP in Westminster elections. The
DUP have consistently outpolled the UUP in EU elections.
In 1994 and previous EU elections the UUP candidate has been elected on
transfers from Ian Paisley's surplus. This time around it might not be as
clear cut. UK Unionist Robert MacCartney is running and could pull votes
from both the UUP's Jim Nicholson and Ian Paisley. The PUP's David Ervine
is also a candidate and this too could dilute the unionist vote.
Seán Neeson is the Alliance candidate in their first post-Alderdice
election campaign. It will be interesting to see if their vote declines or
grows.
Sinn Féin's Mitchel MacLaughlin is the Sinn Féin candidate this time
around, and the party is working to surpass its 1998 vote share in an
election which could be a crucial in terms of the peace process.
What is more interesting is that a split in the unionist camp opens the
door to the third EU seat. The Six-County EU constituency was deliberately
constructed to give two seats to unionism with one for nationalists.
The elections since 1979 have been fairly predictable, with tactical voting
in evidence. In 1999 there could be a new template for EU voting patterns.
A growing Sinn Féin vote with a divided unionist vote opens up serious
possibilities of a second nationalst seat in this election.
Final Prediction. This will be close, a photo finish with Sinn Féin, the
SDLP, the UUP and the DUP neck and and neck for the three seats.
Lift
A growing Sinn Féin vote, with a divided unionist vote opens up serious
possibilities of a second nationalst seat
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