Leinster Lottery
BY ROBBIE MacGABHANN
Only the Dublin constituency had a lower turnout than Leinster in the 1994
EU elections. Turnout was a meagre 43.1%. This did not stop the election
count producing perhaps one of the most unpredictable outcomes of the
elections. Three of the four successful candidates were elected without
reaching the quota. This was after a recount called by the Labour Party's
Michael Bell.
Leinster is a four-seater constituency. In 1994, Fianna Fáil won just over
one third of first preferences. This was, however, enough to win the party
half of the seats. Jim Fitzimons and Liam Hyland were elected for FF.
Fine Gael's two candidates won 27.7% of the vote but only clocked up one
seat. The Green Party's Nuala Ahern took the last seat, even though she had
only won 11.8% of first preferences. Labour's Micheal Bell and Seamus
Pattison clocked up over 15% of the first preferences but Labour still went
away empty handed in 1994. In 1989, Labour had missed out on the last seat
by just 125 votes.
Michael Bell's problems began with the elimination of running mate Seamus
Pattison. Pattison's transfers were well spread. Bell only got just over
half of the 18,953 votes that had originally gone to Pattison. The rest of
the transfers were spread across the five remaining candidates, leaving
Bell stymied by Labour's voting-splitting strategy. He was eliminated on
the sixth count. Bell's transfers elected the successful four candidates.
The knives will be out for the Greens this time around. Nuala Ahern hasn't
managed to achieve the same public profile as her fellow MEP in Dublin has
and this could make it more difficult for her to retain the seat.
Sinn Féin polled 6,523 votes in Leinster in 1994, 2.5% of the total poll.
Sinn Féin's Arthur Morgan is the candidate this time around. Morgan is
tipped by all sides to take a council seat in Louth with Sinn Féin expected
to capitalise on the gains made throughout the 26 Counties in the 1997
Leinster House election. Meath has been another growth area for the party
and increased votes here and in the other council areas the party is
running in should increase the party's vote share significantly.
Final prediction: Labour are not the force they were in 1994. Michael Bell
was decisively beaten for the Labour nomination by Sean Butler at the
party's selection convention. Fianna Fáil could well hold onto their two
seats. Former IFA president Alan Gillis seems likely to hold onto his seat
despite the failure of Fine Gael to deal with collapsing farm incomes when
in government during the period 1994 to `97. He is under pressuere in the
polls, however, from Acril Doyle, whose campaign is gaining momentum. The
last seat will be a dogfight. Consenting adults only.
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