Time for change
By Brian Campbell
After a hectic, historic three months politics in the Six
Counties is still not allowed time to draw breath. In fact, when
the Assembly met on Wednesday there was no shortage of breath.
What was significant was that an engagement of sorts took place.
Not any sort of polite, measured debate, but a debate
nevertheless. Far from the DUP and UKUP members ignoring Sinn
Fein, they were drawn into responding to them. Perhaps it will
develop into something more constructive. That siad, don't hold
your breath.
Looming over the Assembly's first meeting was, of course, the
threat from Orangemen to march on the nationalist Garvaghy Road.
The annual crisis over the march from Drumcree threatens once
more to erupt into violence on the streets. The situation is now
very tense.
Residents fear a British or RUC decision to over-rule the Parades
Commission decision. That would be blatantly against the spirit
of the Agreement, which requires that citizens should not suffer
sectarian intimidation. The Agreement also speaks about a future
of equality. No longer, as newly elected Assembly member Bairbre
de Brun said, should residents be seen as being in the way of
something. They are people with rights and they deserve respect.
If the march goes ahead it would also be at variance with the
resounding nationalist success in the Assembly elections. The Six
Counties is so clearly not the place it was even a few years ago.
Nationalists emerged from the election with their highest ever
share of the vote - a total of 39.6%. It is further proof that
the nationalist community is on the march, so to speak. They will
no longer tolerate being classed as second-class citizens. They
are saying that in the polling stations as well as on the
streets.
By contrast Unionists are split wide open and that has
implications for the wider Unionist community. The intransigent
elements within Unionism are currently engaged in a long term
rearguard action. In the Assembly and as regards Orange marches,
they want to cling on to old certainties. Slowly but surely they
will come to realise the sort of changes that are inevitable. One
of them is respect for the rights of their nationalist
neighbours.
The Unionist vote was split so much that, for the first time, a
nationalist party, the SDLP, topped the poll, with 22%.
But the SDLP has polled as high in the past. The real winners
within nationalism were Sinn Fein. Their 17.6% confirms their
steady advance this decade from less than 11% until now they are
the biggest party in Belfast and in the counties of Tyrone and
Fermanagh. The result also makes Sinn Fein the third largest
party in Ireland. Their combined vote throughout the island is
bettered only by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
A further piece of good news for Sinn Fein came in the shape of a
report which shows that the party attracted 80% of new
nationalist voters. That is a vital statistic given the SDLP's
aging profile and it points to Sinn Fein soon becoming the
largest nationalist party in the Six Counties.
But the SDLP now has the opportunity to rebuild. The prospect of
salaried political careers is likely to see an influx of
personally ambitious young people into the party in the coming
years.
The contrast between nationalism and unionism which this election
has exposed is indeed stark. The sense of empowerment which the
peace process has given to nationalists is expressed in a
confident, coherent strategy - against a palpable fear of the
future among unionists. For them, it is the slow, painful process
of coming to terms with change.
David Trimble, in particular, personifies Unionist confusion and
division. He signed up to the Agreement in what was seen as a
courageous step forward but ever since he has tried to change it
in favour of his position. Instead of campaigning on its
potential to bring a brighter future he focused on those parts -
release of prisoners, IRA decommissioning, Sinn Fein in cabinet -
which have caused him most difficulty. It was arguably the
stupidest campaign someone in his position could have fought and
the result was the Ulster Unionists' lowest ever vote.
Trimble continually lets it be known that he still refuses to
talk to Sinn Fein, and still insists on an IRA handover of arms
in advance of Sinn Fein participation in the Assembly's Executive
and before the release of prisoners.
By contrast, while he uses this negative rhetoric, there is
evidence that Trimble is lagging behind his electorate. The
result of the referendum indicates that he would win support if
he gave positive leadership.
Gerry Adams has said that Trimble is torn between his emotions
and his intellect - emotionally he is against change;
intellectually he knows it must come. When his emotions and
intellect are aligned, then we will see progress, Adams said.
That progress can only come by working the terms of the Agreement
but so far there is nothing to show that Trimble has grasped that
reality.
His language betrays his agenda. He fought the election on a
platform of minimum change and has yet to reveal a strategy to
move into the new future described by the Agreement. Even when he
made what was billed as a forward-looking speech, Trimble
pointedly ruled out dealing with republicans.
But Sinn Fein now has enough seats to guarantee them two cabinet
positions. Trimble as First Minister will be faced with the
dilemma of having to deal with two Ministers at the cabinet table
while at the same time refusing to talk with them. The
inevitability of a climbdown should see an eventual end to the
farce. But it may run for a few months yet.
For the moment, the Assembly will be suspended until September.
The Agreement stipulates that its institutions be in place by the
end of October - in particular the all-Ireland bodies - but
Trimble's Ulster Unionists have said they are determined to delay
until well into next year. It is yet another indication of
Trimble's short term tactics. The desire to hold back the tide of
change reveals the lack of a coherent strategy.
That tide of change could begin on the Garvaghy Road, but that is
up to the British government. It is their first major test. We'll
soon know if they have passed it. Behind the scenes loyalist
death squads are said to be preparing to strike against
nationalists and there have been warnings to be extremely
vigilant. It could be a tense few weeks.
![[An Phoblacht]](http://republican-news.org/graphics/title_gifs/aprn.gif)