The polls! The polls!
Brian Campbell has the hump over opinion polls
Republicans are quite rightly annoyed over election opinion
polls. In particular, two polls commissioned by the Irish Times
seriously under-represented Sinn Fein's support.
The first, ten days before election day, gave Sinn Fein 10% and
the SDLP 25%. No republican gave it the slightest credibility and
neither did a handful of serious political commentators but that
didn't stop incessant reports that the SDLP's day had come and
this was not to be Sinn Fein's election. It helped feed a
perception that the SDLP could end up as the largest party.
A quick look at the small print confirmed the poll's dubious -
and possibly deliberately misleading - nature. It was a telephone
poll conducted, it was later reported, partly by people with
English accents. Now, if someone phoned me out of the blue and
asked me who I intended to vote for I would say Alliance, or the
Women's Coalition, or the SDLP. I'm not going to say Sinn Fein,
especially after years of sometimes murderous attacks on Sinn
Fein members and supporters. That's why polls in the Six Counties
always underestimate SF strength.
Besides that, telephone polls are weighted against parties which
attract working class support because fewer working class than
middle class people own phones.
No wonder it gave Sinn Fein support at 10%.
The second major poll was the RTE/Irish Times exit poll. RTE's
Prime Time had conducted a similar poll for the referendum and
the result was very accurate. They thought they could work the
same magic. They interviewed 2,400 voters in all 18
constituencies and announced the result when the polling stations
closed at 10.00pm on Thursday. It gave Sinn Fein 13%. Immediately
the pundits on Prime Time and the headline writers in all the
daily newspapers in Ireland went into action. With some minor
caveats buried deep in the analysis, the poll was treated as
fact.
I spoke to Sinn Fein activists on Friday morning. Were they
worried about the 13% prediction? No, not a bit. One of them told
me: ``Sinn Fein are the experts here, not the pollsters. If our
support was down to 13%, we'd know about it. Every indication
says we'll be well up.'' And so it proved. Sinn Fein ended up with
17.6%, their highest ever.
One other theory for the low poll figures was put forward by
Orange Order supporter (and avid An Phoblacht reader) Ruth Dudley
Edwards in her column in the Irish Times. She reckons the gap
between polls and reality is made up of fraudulent votes. In
other words, a whopping 4.6% (37,000) or 7.6% (61,000) of the SF
total are stolen votes. That is a theory which even Alex Attwood
at his most deluded wouldn't come up with.
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